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ASTS long-term potential?

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I recently started reading up on ASTS (Spacemobile) and have to say that the company has really convinced me. ASTS' plan to promote global satellite networks and thus fill the gaps in coverage sounds very promising at first. In addition, with over 45 partnerships (including with Vodafone, Telefonica etc.), I see great potential.

Even if ASTS is currently the most advanced provider, they have to deal with giants as competition. Starlink in particular, but also Apple and Lynk, are considered a threat here. Even if they are still a little behind, they could catch up at any time.

Of course, that was just a bit of information broken down to the smallest detail.

What do you think of ASTS? Does the name mean anything to you? And if so, are you also considering adding their shares to your portfolio? I look forward to every answer ;)

Top Comment: In the latest call we got conformation that the tech works is huge & together with the recent funding and debt lowering means it’s set up for a good future. All that’s necessary now is launching the satellites. Ofcourse there is always some risk left but they removed allot of doubts and risk in the last 24 months. But don’t just trust me, please DYOR before investing.

Forum: r/stocks

Is ASTS still a buy

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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has grown 92% from its recent low few weeks ago.

It all started after Jeff Bezos visited them in Midland, Texas. Growth accelerated after clash between Trump and Musk and continued last week after they got Ligado spectrum. 11 day streak ended on Tuesday but growth continued yesterday after they partnered with India’s leading telecom provider Vi.

I believe in their tech and what they are trying to do is innovative and smart but to me the company now seems overvalued.

Satellite launches have been delayed few times and it is crucial that they launch them as fast as possible, because until they are launched there will be no revenue and they will need to dilute even more (they announced yet another dilution on last earnings call).

I’ve sold my shares last week with average in mid thirties and I believe that stock is past due for pullback.

I plan on buying even more when that happens but I’m curious what do you think about company as a whole and what do you think about recent run up.

Top Comment: Personal opinion: If you're comfortable acknowledging that ASTS is a high-risk + long-horizon speculative investment, then yes, GO FOR IT, I'd say. Just understand that you're betting not on what the company is today, but on what it might become in the future.

Forum: r/ValueInvesting

AST Space Mobile has red flags all over. But I'm still intrigued

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Spoke to a couple fund managers yesterday that I think very highly of and they were both raving about AST Space Mobile (NASDAQ: ASTS).

Long story short. The company is trying to build a space-based cellular broadband satellite network. If those words mean nothing to you, same. The way I understand it is think Starlink but instead of buying your own antenna to localize the connection, AST has a massive antenna in space that pings connectivity to you.

Nice story, but I have no technical expertise that tells me whether or not this is legit. And frankly, there have been so many bullshit space economy stocks that I felt pretty inclined to discard this. After all, it has so many red flags. SPAC (yuck), Pre-Revenue (yuck), Space Economy (yuck).

But I respect both of these fund managers a lot and they do not typically invest in these kind of things, so I kept looking. And I found something that really stood out... their shareholder base.

  • Rakuten (Japanese Mobile Network Operator)
  • AT&T (investment + partnership)
  • Verizon (investment + partnership)
  • American Tower
  • Hennessy Funds (early investor in American Tower)
  • Alphabet

Keep in mind, the ideal outcome for ASTS here is that they would be supplemental to your typical wireless coverage. So imagine you're an AT&T subscriber, but for an extra $10/mo or whatever you can get satellite coverage in rural areas to.

So the fact that they've partnered with the 2 largest MNOs in the US (AT&T/Verizon) is a big deal. If they think this is legit, that's a major vote of confidence.

As for the numbers, it's an $8B market cap. It doesn't take much digging to see that if things go right (that's a big if) and they can get their 90 projected satellites up in space successfully, they'll earn their market cap in cash pretty quickly.

I guess my question is, why shouldn't I take a flyer on this thing?

Top Comment: The entire LEO space is heating up, but the spend before revenue really hits is considerable. Upcoming launches of extra satellites might also fail causing delay, which could hurt. I see them as a biotech company, promising market but need money to get there. My play is through JEDI, an ETF for the sector where they are a large holding but still under 10%. That way I have upside but more hedged against specific company isssues.

Forum: r/ValueInvesting

$ASTS DD The Space Trade will Cum.

Main Post:

When I first wrote about ASTS 4 years ago, it was the first DD on the stock to appear on this subreddit. I told you to dismantle your grandparents porch to sell the top of lumber and buy the stock. I was kinda right but also terribly wrong as you can see in my gain post here. Now I am older, wiser, richer, and with a hotter wife and better DD. So settle in and learn something. Or don’t, it’s whatever. When you last ignored me there was one key point in the ASTS Investment Thesis:

  1. ASTS Wholesale Model gives them access to billions of customers and thereby revenue.
  • All Satellite companies (save for SpaceX’s Starlink) have failed because they cannot effectively monetize their service. Technology isn’t a problem, it’s the go-to-market strategy which fails. ASTS has solved this with its wholesale model working with existing telecoms under the FCCs rules for Supplemental Coverage from Space.
  • Iridium was one of the most incredible engineering accomplishments in history, everyone who used it loved it. It was the only way calls could be made in NYC on 9/11, the only way to call out of New Orleans in Hurricane Katrina, it’s the first thing every person at the top of Everest reaches for, the list goes on.
  • The problem is that Iridium couldn’t sell the service. It was expensive (for the specialized headset and by the minute in its use), people didn’t know it existed (Iridium were engineers not marketers), a market didn’t exist (maritime and remote villages and niche minute by minute sales does not a market make).
    • ASTS solves this with its super wholesale model where AT&T, Verizon, Rakuten, Vodaphone, and others do all the marketing, all the sales, all the billing, and upsell their existing customer base for a service they want anyway (more on this later).
      • ASTS does not need to find customers. Their agreements with the above give them instant access to 3B paying handsets overnight.
      • ASTS does not need to sell the world a new device. Every cell phone just works.

That is the entire story that valued ASTS to its core investors since it started trading as a SPAC. While every single ASTS long term investor lost the love of their wives as the stock cratered to 1.98, the story changed. Five additional pillars have been layered on top of the above original thesis which makes me (and you if you are capable of reading) more bullish. They are as follows:

2) Military Applications Non-Communications Use

  • The large array and patented technology have more uses than just communications with cell phones.
    • They can be used as an alternative to GPS, for Missile Tracking, for PNT, and more.
    • Any piece of military equipment that can accept a small wireless chip can use ASTS.
    • The future of war is remote drone operations. They need connection. ASTS does that too.
  • ASTS was awarded (through a prime contractor) a United States Space Development Agency (SDA) contract worth $43 million
    • This is for 6 satellites for one year and paid out linearly.
    • Fairwinds advertisement for the service shows ASTS communicating with existing Military Satellites.
    • This award will likely be expanded as more satellites come into service.
  • Hybrid Acquisition for proliferated Low-earth Orbit (HALO) program
    • ASTS was awarded a starter contract as their own prime.
    • The program can cover launch and parts costs on top of service payments.
    • End game of this is ASTS use for missile tracking in the “Golden Dome” the Trump administration wants to build out.
  1. European Monopoly / Satco Joint Venture with Vodaphone
  • ASTS and Vodaphone created a joint venture for all of Europe where they will sell the service to other European Telcos. They will also be offering the service to the European Government much like the company is currently doing in the US.
    • Importantly all the data will be sent and received entirely in the EU. All infrastructure will live in the EU. It will be an entirely European Company to be more marketable in Europe.
  • All of this has happened as Elon is nuking his rep in Europe with “roman” salutes and threating to withhold Ukraine’s access to Starlink. People are realizing that Elon is not dependable, and they need alternatives. ASTS is that alternative.
  1. The company has begun to acquire Ligado Spectrum to create their own data service which does not rely on the leasing of spectrum from AT&T and Verizon.
  • This Ligado spectrum has been unusable in the past due to interference with GPS and military spectrum in nearby bands.
    • Ligado was using this Satellite Spectrum as Terrestrial with FCC waivers unsuccessfully.
    • ASTS brings value to this spectrum through its beam forming which results in no interference.
  • Spectrum can be valued on a per mhz per population basis.
    • At .40 - .80 /MHz-pop * 40 MHZ * 330M people in the United States we can value this spectrum at ~8Billion dollars.
      • This is the entire Market Cap of ASTS as it stands today.
      • The company is acquiring the exclusive use of this spectrum for far below this cost. (350M + 4.7M penny warrants + 80M / year + small revenue share)
      • The value of spectrum based on previous auctions likely discounts the future value of spectrum based on the number of connected devices we will be seeing in the future. There is more upside than the $8B figure represents (see point 5Bi).
    • ASTS does its own design and manufacturing and is already designing a new satellite to work with its Ligado spectrum.
    • This deal closing will allow ASTS to sell capacity to its partners or offer their own service ala Starlink.
  1. AI requires constant connectivity
  • Facebook is spending $10B to put fiber underwater for bigger pipes for their own data. That’s all that you need to know about where the biggest companies believe data is going with the introduction of AI. ASTS solves this and blankets the entire earth with data connectivity (albeit with less speed).
    • However, building this giant globe spanning fiber still does not solve the issue of connectivity in the outer reaches of the planet. This is just for the easily accessible areas meaning ASTS still provides value in data delivery which may be of use to companies like Facebook.
  • Autonomous AI Agents need connection and backup connections to operate. Data delivery in all corners of the world matters to make use of AI.
  • Think of every time you have paid $20 for internet on a plane. You need it access to data too, even if you think AI doesn’t (it does).
    • Consider the number of connected “things” you have now. Airtags, smart watches, phones, laptops, cars, trucks, fucking killer drones from Palmer Lucky, farm equipment, doorbells, your wife’s WiFi Dildo that actually makes her cum unlike you, your WiFi buttplug, etc. All of this adds value to the ability to reliably deliver internet to all corners of the planet. That is ASTS’ market.
  1. Space is strategic
  • When I first wrote about the company I thought Elon and Bezos were just playing with the new billionaires toy of rockets. It turns out they were just one step ahead of the game. Space is strategic and having access to your own internet is incredibly valuable given the need for constant connection with AI. They know this and are leveraging their launch capacity to build out their own private internet.
  • ASTS benefits from an increase in launch capacity by having these billionaires fight for ASTS billions of dollars in launch costs. ASTS can essentially play king maker. Every dollar which goes to Blue Origin isn’t going to SpaceX and vice versa. ASTS future launch cadence with its ~150 launches represents billions in launch costs. They can make the below fight for the lowest cost to get this future business. Note: ASTS already has agreements for 60 launches into the end of 2026. At 20 satellites the company expects to be at cash flow breakeven.
  • Don't bet against the below. The Space Trade will come.
    • Elon Musk – Starlink SpaceX
    • Jeff Bezos – Blue Origin New Glenn Kupier
    • Eric Schmidt – Relativity
    • Peter Beck – Rocket Lab
    • Abel Avellan - ASTS

Before one of you morons say “waaaaaa but what about starlink?” shut the fuck up and get out of my DD. Thanks. Starlink proper does not speak to cell phones which is why they require end users to have a dish or a mini dish to use their service. Their direct to cell solution with T-Mobile is not purpose built and has failed to deliver simple text messages. Take some time to read reviews of their service. It is complete shit and has no hopes of delivering broadband speed like ASTS without a complete redesign (which is probably difficult given that their lead engineer for D2C just left the company. Not a great look innit?). Alright with that out of the way we can continue. The rest of this writeup I completed for school and is a technical writeup of the company. Enjoy or whatever. There is very little information about the business valuation because I am not smart like that (or in any other way but neither are you). If you want to know more, read u/thekookreport ‘s DD document. It is incredible and if you take the time to read it you might have the conviction required to acquire generational wealth. Good luck! Anyways here ya go bud:

Company and Industry Background

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is pioneering direct-to-device satellite connectivity, enabling standard, unmodified smartphones to connect directly to satellites for broadband cellular service. This groundbreaking technology positions ASTS uniquely to deliver global mobile broadband coverage, especially in areas lacking traditional terrestrial infrastructure. Through large, powerful phased-array antennas deployed on satellites in low Earth orbit, ASTS creates "cell towers in space" which provide seamless connectivity without the need for specialized satellite phones or additional equipment like satellite dishes.

Globally, approximately 2.6 billion people lack internet access (World Economic Forum), primarily due to economic barriers in deploying terrestrial networks in remote or sparsely populated regions. ASTS addresses this significant digital divide by allowing these individuals to access broadband services using any existing smartphone.

According to Groupe Speciale Mobile Association (“GSMA”), as of December 31, 2024, approximately 5.8 billion mobile subscribers are constantly moving in and out of coverage, approximately 3.4 billion people have no cellular broadband coverage and approximately 350.0 million people have no connectivity or mobile cellular coverage.

There are approximately 6.8 Billion smartphones in the world all of which would be compatible with ASTS service on Day 1 without any modifications required as their service purely mimics existing GSMA service. As global connectivity becomes increasingly essential, particularly with the rapid expansion and integration of artificial intelligence, the value of ASTS grows exponentially.

ASTS strategically targets underserved regions in both developed and developing markets, focusing on areas where conventional terrestrial infrastructure is economically impractical or geographically challenging. The company's approach aligns with the FCC's Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) framework (FCC-23-22A1), which outlines the means of providing cell phone coverage from space and necessitates spectrum leasing agreements with established Mobile Network Operators (MNOs). Recognizing this requirement, ASTS has secured strategic investments from industry leaders such as Google, AT&T, Verizon, American Tower, and Vodafone. These investments validate ASTS's technological and business approach, simultaneously offering traditional MNOs a beneficial partnership. Operators like AT&T and Verizon benefit by monetizing their spectrum in otherwise unused regions. This also benefits MNOs and American Tower by effectively hedging their terrestrial tower businesses against the propagation of space-based service and maximizing existing assets and valuable spectrum.

Unlike conventional satellite phone providers or systems such as Starlink and Project Kuiper, which compensate for smaller satellite footprints by relying heavily on extensive ground infrastructure, ASTS's design is distinct. It employs significantly larger satellite antenna arrays, enabling direct communication with regular mobile phones without modifications. The large antennas generate a robust, "loud" signal from space, capable of directly reaching unmodified consumer devices—contrasting sharply with traditional satellite phones, which rely on devices actively searching for faint satellite signals. Additionally, ASTS's larger arrays dramatically reduce the total number of satellites needed for global coverage. For instance, while Project Kuiper plans to deploy 3,236 satellites and Starlink already operates over 8,000 satellites, ASTS aims to achieve global coverage with approximately 168 satellites. This not only optimizes efficiency but also addresses growing concerns about orbital congestion and space debris.

The wholesale go-to-market strategy adopted by ASTS leverages existing customer bases from mobile network operators, providing a significant competitive advantage. Unlike previous satellite endeavors, such as Iridium—which faced challenges not with technology but with market adoption due to high costs and complex marketing—ASTS offers a straightforward, accessible solution that integrates seamlessly with existing mobile ecosystems. The model ensures rapid adoption and scalability, delivering reliable broadband service globally without the barriers encountered by traditional satellite communication providers.

To further enhance customer accessibility and peace of mind, ASTS offers flexible pricing options such as day passes and affordable monthly fees, ensuring users remain consistently connected wherever they travel. This model caters to the growing expectation of constant connectivity, as increasingly more devices—including cars, smartwatches, location trackers, and other IoT gadgets—rely on continuous internet access. Consumers regularly demonstrate willingness to pay for reliable connectivity, just think of every time you have paid or considered paying $24.99 for in-flight Wi-Fi.

In fact, early findings show nearly two-thirds of subscribers are willing to pay extra [for satellite connectivity], with about half open to ~$5/month for off-grid connectivity

Source(s) of innovation

When a cell phone initiates a call or sends data, the signal travels through an uplink from the device to the nearest cell tower. At the tower’s base station, this signal is processed and forwarded through a high-capacity connection known as backhaul, typically via fiber-optic cables or microwave links, toward the network core. The network core functions like the network's brain, determining the signal’s destination and routing it accordingly. From the network core, the call or data is directed out through the appropriate aggregation points and backhaul connections toward the recipient’s nearest tower. At this final cell tower, the signal is sent via a downlink directly to the receiving user’s phone, completing the communication.

In contrast, ASTS' approach replaces traditional cell towers and terrestrial backhaul infrastructure with satellites positioned in low Earth orbit. When a phone communicates with AST's BlueBird satellite, the uplink signal travels directly from the user's phone to the satellite itself, acting as a "tower in space." The satellite processes and beams the signal back down to strategically located ground gateways that connect to the terrestrial network core, bypassing the extensive network of ground towers and traditional backhaul. The core network then routes the call or data to the recipient, either via terrestrial towers or via another satellite beam. This approach effectively removes geographic barriers, delivering cellular connectivity even in remote or underserved areas where traditional terrestrial infrastructure is unavailable or economically impractical.

Starlink has recently gained significant attention with its high-profile Super Bowl advertisement showcasing their satellite texting offering with T-Mobile, bringing public awareness to direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity (Mobile World Live). However, despite this increased visibility, Starlink faces inherent technological limitations in its beam-forming capabilities. The satellite's antennas generate broad, flashlight-like beams that cover large geographical areas but lack precision. This approach leads to increased interference with neighboring networks and limits Starlink's ability to efficiently reuse spectrum, ultimately restricting network capacity and data throughput for individual users.

Starlink's beam design contrasts sharply with more advanced D2D satellite systems that utilize precise, narrowly-focused beams to minimize interference and maximize spectrum efficiency. Due to Starlink's broader beam coverage, each satellite can serve fewer distinct user groups simultaneously, which reduces overall service quality and speed per user. As a result, while Starlink's high-profile marketing has drawn consumer attention to satellite-based mobile connectivity, its practical applications remain constrained, particularly in densely populated or interference-sensitive areas where efficient beam management and high throughput are critical.

Comparatively, ASTS employs significantly narrower, laser-focused beams enabled by their large phased-array antennas, as detailed in FCC filings (FCC 20200413-00034). ASTS satellites can generate beams as narrow as less than one degree, precisely targeting coverage areas and significantly reducing interference. In contrast, Starlink’s FCC filings (FCC 1091870146061) indicate beam widths that can span tens or hundreds of kilometers, with antenna gains around 38 dBi, resulting in broader coverage but increased interference and reduced spectral efficiency. ASTS's advanced beam-forming capabilities allow for precise, efficient frequency reuse and higher overall throughput per user, providing a notable advantage over Starlink in both performance and spectrum management.

The top image taken from FCC Filings represents the antenna pattern for ASTS' system, akin to a laser pointer, with a very sharp, narrow central beam and significantly lower sidelobes. This tight focus ensures the energy is highly concentrated, minimizing interference with other areas and maximizing the signal strength in the intended coverage zone. Conversely, the bottom image illustrates Starlink's broader beam pattern, similar to a flashlight, with a wide central lobe and substantial sidelobes. The broader distribution of energy leads to greater interference and less precise coverage, reducing overall network efficiency and limiting the achievable throughput per user.

ASTS innovation is best shown in their extensive patent portfolio some of which protect this signal creation.

ASTS utilizes significantly larger satellites featuring advanced phased-array antennas that unfold in orbit, allowing them to generate stronger and more precise signals directly to standard mobile phones. The satellite itself employs a straightforward "bent pipe" design, which simply receives signals from phones and redirects them toward ground gateways without complex onboard processing. The sophisticated management of signals is handled by ASTS's proprietary software on the ground, ensuring seamless integration with existing mobile carrier networks and compatibility with current and future mobile technologies (including 6G). We can examine some key patents from the company to gain a better understanding of their technology advantage:

Mechanical Deployable Structure for LEO: This patent covers AST’s deployment mechanism for its large flat satellites​. The satellite’s antenna array is made of many square/rectangular panels (with solar on one side and antennas on the other) hinged together with spring-loaded connectors. These stored-energy hinges (often called spring tapes) automatically unfold the panels into a contiguous flat array once the satellite is in space, without needing motors or power to do the deployment. In essence, the satellite launches compactly folded up, and when it reaches orbit, it pops open on its own like a spring-loaded blanket. This is a core enabler for ASTS business: it allows them to fit a very large antenna into a small launch volume and reliably deploy it in orbit​. The self-deploying design reduces complexity and points of failure (since fewer motors or controls are needed), lowering launch and manufacturing costs. Successfully deploying a massive antenna is critical for AST’s service capability.

Integrated Antenna Module with Thermal Management: This patent describes the flat antenna module that integrates solar cells and radio antennas into one structure and includes built-in cooling features​. In simple terms, each panel on ASTS satellite serves as both a power source (via solar cells) and a communication antenna, while also dissipating its own heat. This means the satellite can be made up of many such panels tiled into the huge antenna array above without overheating. This innovation allows ASTS to deploy very large, power-efficient antennas in orbit, enabling stronger signals and broad coverage for mobile users without the weight or complexity of separate cooling systems.

Dynamic Time Division Duplex (DTDD) for Satellite Networks: This patent introduces a smart timing controller that manages uplink and downlink signals so they don’t collide when using time-division duplex (TDD) over satellite​. In layman’s terms, because satellites are far away, signals take longer to travel – this system dynamically adjusts when a phone should send vs. receive so that echoes of a transmission don’t interfere with new data. For ASTS, this technology is crucial: it lets standard mobile phones communicate seamlessly with satellites by fine-tuning timing, which improves network reliability and throughput. Without this patent the time between uplink and downlink would result in loss of signal as normal cell signals are not used to the latency experienced in space travel.

Geolocation of Devices Using Spaceborne Phased Arrays: This patent outlines a method for pinpointing a phone’s location from space using the satellite’s phased-array antenna​. The satellite first uses its multiple beams to get a rough location (which cell or area the device is in), then refines the device’s position by analyzing Doppler shifts and signal travel time. The satellite can not only talk to your phone but also figure out where you are by how your signal frequency changes (due to motion) and delays, similar to how GPS works but using the communication signal itself.

Direct GSM Communication via Satellite: This patent covers a solution that allows standard GSM mobile phones (2G phones) to connect directly to a satellite​. The system involves a satellite with a coverage area divided into cells and a ground infrastructure that includes a feeder link and tracking antenna to manage the connection. A primary processing device communicates with the active users’ phones, and a secondary processor adjusts timing delays for all the beams/cells. This tricks the GSM phones into thinking the satellite is just another cell tower by handling the long signal delay.

Network Access Management for Satellite RAN: This patent describes a method to efficiently handle when a user device first tries to connect to a satellite-based radio network​. The idea is to use a single wide beam from the satellite to watch for any phone requesting access across a large area of many cells. Once a phone’s request is detected in a particular cell, the system then lights up that cell with a focused beam (and can broadcast necessary signals to other inactive cells as needed). Essentially, the satellite first yells “anyone out there?” over a broad area, and when a phone waves back, the satellite switches to a more targeted conversation with that phone’s sector. This on-demand beam switching is business-critical for ASTS: it conserves power and spectrum by not constantly servicing empty regions, allowing one satellite to cover many cells efficiently. It means the network can support more users over a wide area with fewer satellites, lowering operational costs and improving user experience by quickly granting access when someone pops up in a normally quiet zone.

Satellite MIMO Communication System: This patent describes a technique for using multiple antennas on both the satellite (or satellites) and the user side to create a MIMO (multiple-input multiple-output) link for data​. In simple terms, the base station on the ground can send out multiple distinct radio streams through different satellite beams or even different satellites to a device that has several antennas. By doing so, the end user (if capable, like modern phones with multiple antennas) can receive parallel data streams, boosting throughput.

Seamless Beam Handover Between Satellites: This patent deals with handing off a user’s connection from one low-Earth-orbit satellite to the next to avoid dropped calls or data sessions​. It outlines a system where an area on Earth (cell) that is covered by a setting satellite (one moving out of view) is also in view of a rising satellite. The network uses overlapping beams: one satellite’s beam and then the other’s beam cover the same cell during handover. A processing device orchestrates two communication links and switches the user’s session from the first satellite to the second as the first goes over the horizon.

Types/Patterns of Innovation

Initial Testing

AST began its journey in 2019 with modest yet creative experiment. Their first satellite, BlueWalker 1 (BW1), placed the components of an everyday cell phone into space as a nanosatellite developed in collaboration with NanoAvionics. Instead of the conventional and costly approach—launching a satellite to communicate with ground-based phones, AST reversed this arrangement. They connected a cell phone in orbit with a specialized ground-based satellite (BlueWalker 2). This unusual yet insightful solution significantly reduced the initial costs of launch deployment, enabling rapid and cost-effective R&D. This approach was innovative both economically and operationally, demonstrating practical, real-world viability of their core concept.

Funding and Expansion

Early on, the company attracted strategic backing from the telecom industry. In 2020, a Series B round of $110 million was led by Vodafone and Japan’s Rakuten, with participation from Samsung, and American Tower signaling broad industry confidence in AST’s direct-to-phone satellite technology. Importantly, during this time these investors did their own due diligence on the business and verified the work up to this point and the business case. Rather than a traditional IPO, ASTS utilized a SPAC merger to go public: in April 2021 it merged with New Providence Acquisition Corp., raising a total of $462 million in gross proceeds including $230 million from a PIPE investment by Vodafone, Rakuten, and American Tower.

BlueWalker 3 Satellite

With SPAC funding secured, ASTS increased their R&D spend to launch a fully functional satellite, BlueWalker 3 (BW3), featuring the largest phased-array antenna ever deployed in space (save for the international space station). The satellite was approximately 700 sq ft, roughly the size of a one-bedroom apartment. BW3 employed Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA), enabling in-orbit software upgrades and flexible testing to allow changes not captured with BW1 to be complete after launch. Successful demonstrations of BW3's capability included groundbreaking tests such as the first-ever 5G video call from space to an everyday smartphone in Hawaii, validating their ability to deliver advanced broadband connectivity directly from orbit.

BlueBird Block 1

In September 2024, AST took critical steps toward commercialization with the launch of their first commercial satellites BlueBirds 1 through 5 (Space.com). These satellites further tested vital functionalities, including seamless handoffs between satellites, a key requirement for global continuous connectivity. These launches were strategically significant, marking the transition from proof-of-concept to scalable commercial operations. Demonstration video calls were conducted and announced through MNO partners Vodafone, AT&T, and Verizon for testing AST’s technology in real-world networks. These tests were the result of the FCC granting a Special Temporary Authority (STA) to the company. This was particularly significant given its alignment with the broader regulatory landscape under the new FCC commissioner Brendan Carr (Trump Appointed) which shows the regulatory and market acceptance of AST's innovative business model. Further, this removed the Elon Musk sized elephant in the room wherein Starlink was thought to be the only satellite gaining the approval under the new administration.

Next-Generation ASICs

AST is also innovating on hardware performance through development of next-generation Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). Replacing initial FPGA implementations, these ASIC chips promise a 100x increase in data throughput (as in total data deliverable). This dramatic efficiency improvement increases future satellite capabilities and economic performance, making their network even more attractive for commercial deployment.

Next-Generation Satellites

AST’s innovation continues with BlueBird 2 (BB2), a significantly scaled-up satellite design of 2,400 sq ft. Incorporating next-gen ASIC technology, these satellites represent a major leap forward in performance and capability, scheduled to be launched through agreements with Blue Origin, ISRO, and SpaceX. Through increased size and performance from the ASIC, ASTS intends to increase the 30mbps download speed represented by Block 1 to 120 mbps in future iterations of their technology. By the end of 2026, AST aims to have a constellation of approximately 60 satellites in orbit, bolstered by substantial financial backing with over $1 billion in available capital.

Strategic Spectrum Acquisition

See above Ligado. At character limit.

Military and Government Partnerships

Recognizing strategic opportunities, AST has advanced their military use cases, positioning its technology as a solution for the U.S. Department of Defense and Space Development Agency (SDA). With their satellite constellation able to integrate seamlessly with existing military satellite communication (MILSATCOM) infrastructure AST becomes highly relevant for sensitive government applications such as missile tracking, asset monitoring, and secure communications. A recent $43 million SDA contract further highlights AST’s alignment with national security interests and confirms their technology’s strategic importance.

As part of the U.S. Space Force, SDA will accelerate delivery of needed space-based capabilities to the joint warfighter to support terrestrial missions through development, fielding, and operation of the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture.

Definition of “Value-added” for the Firm’s Products/Services

Resilience in Disaster Response

One of the most compelling advantages of a space-based cellular network is its resilience during disasters. When hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, or other natural disasters strike, terrestrial infrastructure often fails. Cell towers can be knocked out by storms or burned in wildfires, leaving first responders and affected communities without communication exactly when it’s most needed. ASTS satellite technology adds a crucial layer of redundancy: even if ground towers are down, the network in the sky and a single base station anywhere in the country remains operational. This capability can be life-saving in emergency scenarios.

ASTS has been working closely with AT&T to integrate its system with FirstNet, the dedicated U.S. public safety network for first responders. FirstNet, built by AT&T, provides priority cellular service to police, firefighters, EMTs and other emergency personnel. By extending FirstNet into space, ASTS ensures that first responders stay connected in real time, anywhere. The value added by ASTS in disaster response is clear: persistent coverage when conventional networks fail.

Cost Efficiency Compared to Subsea Cables

Building out global internet connectivity has traditionally meant expensive infrastructure projects, such as undersea fiber-optic cables to connect continents. These projects involve enormous capital expenditures and long deployment timelines. ASTS' approach – launching a constellation of low Earth orbit satellites – presents a potentially more flexible and cost-efficient path to worldwide broadband coverage. A rough cost comparison highlights this difference in strategy and scalability. ASTS plans to deploy a complete constellation of 168 satellites to achieve global coverage. Each satellite in AST’s “BlueBird” series is estimated to cost on the order of $20 million to build and launch.

Brian Graft, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Anything on the cost per satellite? Has that changed at all? Are you still in that $19,000,000 to $21,000,000 range? Abel Avellan: No. Yes, we’re not changing the guidance on cost per satellite

It’s important to note that satellite broadband isn’t a wholesale replacement for fiber in terms of raw capacity – major cables can carry tremendous data volume at very low latency along their fixed routes, which is vital for the core internet backbone. However, from a business strategy perspective, ASTS' satellites offer a more economical way to extend the “last mile” of connectivity to users who would otherwise require huge investment to reach.

Enabling Always-On Connectivity for Emerging Technologies

Beyond simply connecting people, ASTS' continuous global coverage unlocks critical opportunities for emerging technologies that depend on uninterrupted internet access. For AI agents and cloud services, constant connectivity is essential. Autonomous robotics, including self-driving cars, drones, and agricultural robots, similarly benefit from AST’s satellite service, ensuring seamless operation even in remote areas beyond traditional cellular coverage.

Strategic Independence and the European D2D Initiative

See Above SatCo JV with Vodaphone. Need to cut word count.

Wholesale Model

NomadBets twitter shows the breakdown of subscriber potential with ASTS. This is where revenue will blow out all expectations.

ASTS competencies are built around its ability to design, manufacture, and deploy large and powerful satellites optimized for direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity. All of which are critical for maximizing signal strength, bandwidth, and data throughput directly to everyday smartphones. AST's expertise in large arrays is particularly advantageous, as bigger (and thereby heavier) arrays translate directly into stronger signals, increased power generation, and significantly improved data speeds to user devices. ASTS requires just 168 large satellites for global coverage, compared to 3,236 for Amazon's Kuiper and over 8,158 for SpaceX's Starlink, this greatly reduces CAPEX, collision risk, launch risk, and replacement costs for AST. With all this in mind, AST benefits greatly from falling launch costs enabled by leading space-launch providers such as Blue Origin and SpaceX. This is best displayed as a year-over-year pricing trend of launch vehicles on a per-kilogram basis:

As launch providers increasingly offer higher-capacity rockets at reduced costs, ASTS uniquely benefits from its strategy of deploying fewer, heavier satellites with large, high-performance antennas rather than numerous smaller satellites. The first successful flight of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket notably demonstrated its capability to carry up to eight of AST’s Block 2 satellites simultaneously, providing a clear cost advantage. Likewise, SpaceX’s Falcon 9, recognized globally for its reliability and affordability, can accommodate four Block 2 satellites per launch. Additionally, the progress on SpaceX’s Starship program offers further promise, potentially unlocking even greater launch capacities at lower costs.

AST's operational competencies are further strengthened by its vertical integration.

Approximately 95% vertically integrated for manufacturing of satellite components and subsystems, for which we own or license the IP and control the manufacturing process.

By controlling its own production processes and intellectual property, AST not only reduces dependency on external suppliers—mitigating geopolitical and supply-chain risks—but also achieves superior cost efficiencies and quality control. This vertical integration is crucial at a time when the United States is prioritizing domestic capability in strategic industries like space technology, positioning AST favorably to benefit from increasing governmental support and protective policies.

The company's production strategy is robust and ambitious, with AST targeting a monthly production rate of six satellites at its Texas factory. This consistent cadence enables rapid scaling and timely replacement of satellites, ensuring continuous, reliable service for customers. Given rising geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning competition with China in space exploration and technology, AST's fully integrated, U.S.-based manufacturing operation places it strategically to capitalize on potential government partnerships or contracts aimed at strengthening domestic space capabilities.

Organizational Structure/Culture/Leadership

This section was about the leadership team of the company. It is just regurgitated from their own website and is not really valuable. Here is all you need to know: the CEO Abel Avellan is a certified bad ass. He has had a successful exit from his first company EMC and used that cash to fund this company. He takes no salary, he doesn’t have a crazy stock based compensation that he extracts with, he is just a good dude who is aligned with the company and its investors. He doesn’t spend his day on twitter trying to impregnate Tiffany Fong. He has not lied about his ability to play Diablo or PoE2. We like Abel. You should too.

Positions Disclosure:

Top Comment: My brother in Christ, that’s the longest Reddit post I’ve ever seen. Is it going up or down?

Forum: r/wallstreetbets

Thoughts on AST Space Mobil (ASTS)

Main Post:

I’ve been looking into this company. It has an interesting mission, and I want to like it, but I’m having a difficult time seeing a successful business plan.

To their credit (and the only reason why I’m considering them) they do have A LOT of contracts with major carriers. That said, the contracts don’t really appear to be worth all that much, especially considering the insane costs that comes with space missions. For instance, their contract with one of the largest carriers, Verizon, is only worth $100M, which will only fund the creation and launch of a few satellites. AST still needs to put 60+ satellites into orbit before they can even think of offering 24/7 satellite internet services. That’s not cheap. They have an insane amount of debt, and their contracts seem comparatively cheap (which might be the only reason they have all these telcos signing with them).

Combine that with the fact that Starlink is going to be their major competitor, and they have name recognition and actually already have enough satellites in orbit to actually offer D2C internet services. Starlink hasn’t been seriously trying to capture the cell phone market, but if they start putting an ounce of effort into it, I don’t see a reason why any telco will go with AST over Starlink.

I want to like this company, though. Am I missing anything?

Top Comment: Starlink D2D can-t do voice or data, only text. Even then, their texting service is kinda shit at the moment (look up the restrictions for texting via starlink in New Zealand.) Meanwhile, ASTS alpha tedting shows seamless voice and video communication, and the full constellation will be able to compete with 5G. RE: funding, they've already covered the cost of the first 26 satellites. The plan isn't to be a standalone carrier, but rather to be an addon to existing carrier plans. The current sentiment is that the MNOs will simply include a fee on user's bills, and a portion of that fee will be paid to ASTS. Just using conservative numbers... In the US alone, Verizon and AT&T combine for ~260M subscribers. If they add a $2 / line charge to user's bills, that's $520M /mo. The carriers don't really have to do anything to gain this coverage, so we can assume 50% for ASTS. This works out to $260M per month / $3.12B per year of revenue. Vodaphone has 330M subscribers. Plans are cheaper in EU and Africa, so let's cut the revenue by 75%. This is an additional $990M / year. Between just these two, ASTS is looking at ~$4B / year in revenue. ASTS is estimating a total cost of $1.8B to build out and launch their full constellation of 168 satellites. After that, maintenance on the ground is negligible. People are estimating ASTS will be over 80% profitable once they're in full service. This is earning of $3.2B per year. Edit: adding on to this, ASTS current public float is 149,320,000. At earnings of $3.2B, that works out to an EPS of $21.43. If we assume a conservative P/E ratio of 20, that works out to a share price of roughly $430

Forum: r/stocks

What's up(down) with ASTS?

Main Post:

It's been nearly 3 months since it popped to 39 and has since slid back to almost 20. Granted that is still about 3x from where it started the year.

There is a quarterly business update coming next week, anything to indicate it will recapture its gains or continue to slide?

Top Comment: It went from $2.20 to $40 in less than 6months, I dont really understand why people are expecting further upside being “massive potential”. It would take likely years for the price to even stabilize unless they start generating positive cashflow or indicate they are worth more than the $6b their valuation is at right now, at its peak it was well over $10b with almost no actual revenue or profit, just an announced contract.

Forum: r/stocks

ASTS: This is no longer a joke (+$100,000 position)

Main Post:

The #Spacemob has been telling you guys about ASTS for 2 years now and the time of reckoning is finally upon us. Check my previous detailed DD right here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/112bmqe/how_asts_will_become_one_of_the_best_investments/

There are many more high level DDs on why ASTS is a screaming buy but here's the TLDR for those lacking basic browsing skills:

  1. AT&T and Google are onboard
  2. Verizon is onboard
  3. Vodafone is onboard (early investor)
  4. FirstNET is most likely onboard (check AST sub for most recent tweets)
  5. 5 BB1 satellite launch happening in 2-3 months
  6. 25% of float is currently short and ALL are underwater since price is rocketing. Talk about rock and hard place.

Like everyone here I've had my fair share of laughs around ASTS but this is no longer a joke

Positions or ban:

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I'm an idiot and so are you if you take me seriously. I'm still learning to flip pancakes

Top Comment: I have 3 $4 Jan'25 calls, which I bought at 0.7. Going to let it ride all the way

Forum: r/wallstreetbets

ASTS is actually going to make money, load up now

Main Post:

For anyone paying attention you will have noticed that $ASTS shot up 68% today on over 1700% of normal volume. This is no mere flash-in the pan meme trash. The company signed a commercial agreement with $T (AT&T) announced yesterday on the 1Q earnings call. See here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240515925684/en/

Some Background: This company is launching satellites to serve 5G wireless directly to unmodified cellphones. If you understand anything about radio frequency transmission (which none of you do, of course), you will understand that there are no easy shortcuts around antenna aperture. The geniuses at ASTS will win the race because they have just gone ahead and built the biggest possible antenna that they can possibly send into space. SpaceX is attempting this, but they will not be able to deliver the same or even similar service as ASTS. Their satellites are just to small.

The total addressable market for this company is literally anyone with a cellphone. (read: huge, trillions huge). They’ll sell the service to mobile network operators (MNOs) who will then sell you a roam anywhere package for some fixed monthly cost.

Why buy now: Derisking is over, the company has proven they can deliver and they are beginning to launch the constellation this summer. The commercial agreement with AT&T is likely to be the first of many. If AT&T can get onboard, why can’t you?

There is a substantial amount of info at r/astspacemobile

Speaking the language of WSB, see this post specifically: https://redd.it/1ctnu5d

Current price: $4.03 Price Target: $318 (+7800%)

EDIT: Up 12% after 8 minutes... EDIT2: ASTS is up another 24% on 493% of normal volume before 11:30am. Get your tickets for the moon landing before it’s too late 🚀🚀🚀🚀

Top Comment: After reading 4 paragraphs written by some regard I don’t know about some company I’ve never heard of, I’ve decided to move all my life savings into ASTS

Forum: r/wallstreetbets